Dave, I think you've made some good points about the nature of LDWA membership and the apparent trend away from solo walking towards challenge and group events.
I too have spent most of my life (in my case more than half a century) as a mainly solo walker, and though I am now an enthusiastic supporter of what is a largely unknown (in the wider community, even among longer-distance walkers) extreme walking challenge - the hundred - and its necessary fifty-mile qualifiers, I don't, for the most part, take part or get involved in the larger round of shorter challenge events.
Challenge eventing - it's a sport, regardless of what this website says - has become the predominant mode of the LDWA. This is fairly clear from my experience of social walks, where it's unusual (but then I'm deaf) to hear talk of much beyond the world of 'events', principally the hundred. Sometimes it's LDP-related, but both the talk and the ethos seems to be of fitness, endurance, times, speeds, personal bests, tops-bagging, and, overwhelmingly on a group walk, keeping up regardless of wet feet. Only stiles and gates offer much of a respite for those at the back (and that's not me, not for a few years anyway).
I do enjoy social walks (and next year I'm leading two Challenge-length ones), but still, for me, long distance walking is about the experience: the ground (literally), the surroundings, the joins between bits of routes that I already know, and learning something new (currently about my gps gizmo). In social walks it's clear, in the main, that people don't read information boards, or indeed stop to do anything beyond immediate necessities. Social walks are like slightly shorter challenge walks without the cake and cold rice pudding - the ones where you're allowed to talk (not that I do, much, since people often have trouble hearing me).
Consider this Forum. 'Events' (news of which, then group walks, recently repositioned to the front of Strider) currently has 1,204 topics and 5,901 posts, whereas 'Long Distance Paths' has, respectively, 236 and 810. 'Events' always means challenges. Whether this emphasis has shifted over the years is a moot point. Last year or the one before I attempted to start a discussion in the Forum about the current composition of the membership, on a scale from sole (not necessarily solo) LDPers to Group (Challenge and Social) walkers, but it didn't garner any responses. My current guesstimate is that the proportion of predominant sole-LDP walkers is around 25%, perhaps as little as 20%.
Recent experience of a welcome (but un-typical) two-day-with-overnight-stay social walk along an LDP was that most people hadn't brought a change of footwear or evening clothing, suggesting that they were in what might be called 'normal' LDWA mode. That is, amongst this small and perhaps unrepresentative sample (but that would be towards the LDP end of the scale), most were challenge walkers rather than habitual backpackers. Having more than one set of gear (minimal for challenges, daypack for social, backpack for LDPs) might be a good indicator of where we are on that spectrum, but maybe that's just me. If it includes you, Dave, we appear to be in the minority, even if I'm slightly more of a challenge !
Iain.